The study focused on the extremely small population of wild plants——Michelia wilsonii. The plot investigation method was used to investigate the community of the wild population of M. wilsonii in Zhougong Mountain, Yaan City. According to the theory of space replacement time and smooth out method, we compiled the static life table and plotted the survival curve, mortality curve, disappearance rate curve and survival function curve to analyze its current population structure. The forecasting model of time sequence analysis were used to predict its future quantitative dynamics. in order to reveal the survival potential and endangered mechanism, provide a basis for the restoration and reconstruction of the population. The results showed that: (1) at the study area, the age structure dynamic index V_pi and V_pi′ both are greater than 0. The age structure of M. wilsonii population showed an inverted Jshaped, survival curve tends to DeeveyⅡ type, which showed that the M. wilsonii population was the growing type, but the population structure also has volatility. The number of seedlings is abundant, the development of saplings is hindered, the supplement of saplings to the middle and strong trees was reduced, which means there was a risk of decline. (2) The trends of mortality, disappearance rate of the M. wilsonii wild population were similar, they all peaked at age class Ⅰ, Ⅶ-Ⅷ and Ⅹ, and more stable at age class Ⅱ-Ⅵ. (3) With the increase of the age class, the survival rate of the M. wilsonii population continue to fall, the cumulative mortality continue to rise. The highest hazard rate was showed in the first I age class, reached 1.308, in the Ⅶ-Ⅷ age class, death density lowered to a minimum, and in the stage of the whole age class corresponding to the hazard rate are higher than the survival rate, the population was at risk of decline. (4) The forecasting model of time sequence analysis indicated that after 2, 4, 6, 8 years of age class in the future, there is a decreasing trend in the number of individuals in the middle and strong tree stage. Based on this study, the M. wilsonii wild population had the characteristics of sharp reduction in the early age period, stable in the middle age period and decline in the late age period.