Abstract:Based on the collected geographical distribution coordinates of 45 Rosa persica and the data of 29 environmental factors, this paper made full use of GIS and MaxEnt for analyzing the potential suitable district of R. persica in Xinjiang, exploring the relationship between environmental factors and R. persica, and determining the threshold of the main impact factors, which could provide a scientific basis for the protection and restoration of R. persica population resources. The results showed that: (1) precipitation of driest month, annual precipitation and mean temperature of coldest quarte were the main influencing factors for the suitable area distribution of modern R. persica, the relevant thresholds conducive to the growth of R. persica were 5.56-10.90 mm, 169.62-258.75 mm and -12.48--9.86 ℃, respectively. (2) Under the 29 environmental factors, modern suitable area for R. persica was 19.85×104 km2, accounting for 11.96% of the total area of Xinjiang, which was mainly concentrated in 80°13′ to 91°6′ E, 42°33′ to 48°23′ N, and the highly suitable area was only 0.63×104 km2, mainly distributed in Urumqi, Fukang, Changji, Hutubi, Manas, Shihezi, Shawan, Wusu and Tacheng. (3) Under future climate simulation, the potential suitable area of R. persica under other scenarios decreased significantly, except that the highly suitable area in SSPs126, SSPSs245 and SSPs585 scenarios in 2021-2040 and the medium suitable area increased slightly in 2041-2060 SSPs126 scenarios. During 2041-2060, the distribution center moved to the southeast under SSPs126, but it remained basically unchanged under SSPs585 during 2021-2040. In other scenarios, the distribution center tended to move to higher latitudes. (4) Modern suitable area of R. persica was significantly reduced after the addition of human footprint data, and the contribution rate of human footprint factor was as high as 63.2%, indicating that human activities had a significant negative effect on the suitable area of R. persica.