单叶蔷薇潜在适宜区预测及其渐危机制研究
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国家重点研发计划(2019YFD1001001);


Prediction of Potential Suitable Area of Rosa persica and Study on Its Vulnerable Mechanism
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    摘要:

    基于搜集到的45个单叶蔷薇地理分布坐标和29个环境因子数据,利用GIS和MaxEnt软件分析单叶蔷薇在中国新疆的潜在适宜区,探究环境因子与单叶蔷薇分布之间的关系,确定主要影响因子及其阈值,为单叶蔷薇种群资源保护和修复提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)最干月份降水量、年平均降雨量、最冷季节平均温度是影响现代单叶蔷薇适宜区分布的主要影响因子,利于单叶蔷薇生长的上述相关阈值依次为5.56~10.90 mm、169.62~258.75 mm、-12.48~-9.86 ℃。(2)29个环境因子影响下的现代单叶蔷薇的适宜区总面积达19.85×104 km2,占新疆总面积的11.96%,主要集中于80°13′~91°6′E,42°33′~48°23′N之间,高度适宜区仅0.63×104 km2,主要分布在乌鲁木齐、阜康、昌吉、呼图壁、玛纳斯、石河子、沙湾、乌苏以及塔城地区。(3)未来气候模拟下,除2021-2040年SSPs126、SSPs245、SSPs585情景中的高度适宜区和2041-2060年SSPs126的中度适宜区面积略有扩增外,其他情景下单叶蔷薇潜在适宜区均呈现明显的缩减趋势;2041-2060年SSPs126情景下分布中心向东南移动,2021-2040年SSPs585情景下分布中心基本保持不变,其他情景下分布中心均出现向高纬度迁移的趋势。(4)加入人类足迹数据后的现代单叶蔷薇适宜区显著减少,人类足迹因子贡献率高达63.2%,表明人类活动对单叶蔷薇适宜区有显著的消极影响。

    Abstract:

    Based on the collected geographical distribution coordinates of 45 Rosa persica and the data of 29 environmental factors, this paper made full use of GIS and MaxEnt for analyzing the potential suitable district of R. persica in Xinjiang, exploring the relationship between environmental factors and R. persica, and determining the threshold of the main impact factors, which could provide a scientific basis for the protection and restoration of R. persica population resources. The results showed that: (1) precipitation of driest month, annual precipitation and mean temperature of coldest quarte were the main influencing factors for the suitable area distribution of modern R. persica, the relevant thresholds conducive to the growth of R. persica were 5.56-10.90 mm, 169.62-258.75 mm and -12.48--9.86 ℃, respectively. (2) Under the 29 environmental factors, modern suitable area for R. persica was 19.85×104 km2, accounting for 11.96% of the total area of Xinjiang, which was mainly concentrated in 80°13′ to 91°6′ E, 42°33′ to 48°23′ N, and the highly suitable area was only 0.63×104 km2, mainly distributed in Urumqi, Fukang, Changji, Hutubi, Manas, Shihezi, Shawan, Wusu and Tacheng. (3) Under future climate simulation, the potential suitable area of R. persica under other scenarios decreased significantly, except that the highly suitable area in SSPs126, SSPSs245 and SSPs585 scenarios in 2021-2040 and the medium suitable area increased slightly in 2041-2060 SSPs126 scenarios. During 2041-2060, the distribution center moved to the southeast under SSPs126, but it remained basically unchanged under SSPs585 during 2021-2040. In other scenarios, the distribution center tended to move to higher latitudes. (4) Modern suitable area of R. persica was significantly reduced after the addition of human footprint data, and the contribution rate of human footprint factor was as high as 63.2%, indicating that human activities had a significant negative effect on the suitable area of R. persica.

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张晓龙,邓 童,罗 乐,等.单叶蔷薇潜在适宜区预测及其渐危机制研究[J].西北植物学报,2021,41(9):1570-1582

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-09-28
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