Lycium barbarum is widely distributed in northern China. This study reconstructed the historical geographical distribution pattern of the species, identified its environmental distribution constraints, in order provide a theoretical basis for the conservation of its germplasm resources and the study of plant formation and evolutionary trends. In this study, with L. barbarum as the representative, we used the MaxEnt model to evaluate 228 wild valid distribution points and 19 environmental variables, and identified the related environmental factors affecting its distribution. We modeled and analyzed the geographical distribution pattern of L. barbarum in different periods since the last interglacial period to reveal the change trend of the suitable distribution area of L. barbarum under the climate warming condition, and to predict potential changes in the geographic distribution of L. barbarum under the three CO₂ emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in the future (2050s and 2070s). The results show that: (1) temperature is critical to the distribution of L. barbarum, with the mean temperature of coldest quarter being the most important climatic factor affecting the distribution of the species; (2) the simulation results of the proposed model are consistent with the actual distribution of L. barbarum, but the distribution area is larger than the actual distribution area; (3) the suitable distribution area of L. barbarum contracted during the last glacial maximum, while the distribution area expanded significantly during the last interglacial period (maximum 4.23×10⁶ km²) and showed a trend of advancing to the north and retreating to the south; (4) the suitable distribution area of L. barbarum tended to decrease under the three future climate scenarios, with the intensification of climate warming, the suitable distribution area of this species will migrate to high latitude and high altitude areas, and the habitat fragmentation will be more serious than at present; (5) in the RCP2.62070s scenario, the L. barbarum centroid migrates 108.66 km to the west; in the RCP6.02070s scenario, the centroid migrates 30.23 km to the northeast. It is suggested that the distribution pattern of L. barbarum is strongly responsive to climate change and that the suitable range of the species will shift to higher latitudes and altitudes as the climate warms.