多星韭分布格局对末次盛冰期以来气候的响应
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国家自然科学基金(31570198,31270241);


Responses of the Distribution Pattern of Allium wallichii to Climate Change Following the Last Glacial Maximum
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    摘要:

    该研究以分布区主要在横断山脉的多星韭为对象,基于最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)模拟了多星韭在末次盛冰期、全新世中期、当前以及未来的分布格局,以探讨多星韭对末次盛冰期以来气候变化的响应。结果显示:(1)多星韭当前的分布区主要受到最暖季度降水量、年均温变化范围和温度季节性变化标准差3个气候因子的影响;海拔对多星韭的当前分布也有着较大的影响。(2)最大熵模型的模拟精度较高(AUC=0.98)。(3)根据多星韭各个时期分布面积的变化得出多星韭与部分高山植物相似,相比当前的分布,多星韭末次盛冰期的分布区发生了较为明显的扩张。研究推测,未来多星韭的分布区将向西移动。

    Abstract:

    Allium wallichii Kunth., mainly distributed in the Hengduan Mountain (HDM), was researched in this study. Based on the MaxEnt and ArcGIS, we simulated the distribution trends of A. wallichii in the Last Glacial Maximum, MidHolocene, Current and Future. In addition, we detected the distribution pattern of which A. wallichii responded to climate change following the Last Glacial Maximum. The results indicated that: (1) environmental parameters such as Precipitation of Warmest Quarter, Temperature Annual Range, Temperature Seasonality and Altitude largely influenced the distribution of A. wallichii. (2) Evaluation by ROC curve showed that MaxEnt could accurately predict the species distribution (AUC=0.98). (3) According to the distribution change in all periods, we revealed that the distribution of A. wallichii in the Last Glacial Maximum was expanded compared with the distribution of Current, which is similar to some subnival plants. It can be inferred that the distributions of A. wallichii will move westward in the future.

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白 娟,谢登峰,周颂东,等.多星韭分布格局对末次盛冰期以来气候的响应[J].西北植物学报,2018,38(1):176-182

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-02-05
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