Caragana roborovskyi is a strong arid dwarf shrub, mainly distributed in desert steppe and steppe desert. This research is based on sampling-point map of distribution records of C. roborovskyi, generated from 130 records obtained from herbals and digital specimen databases, and used ensemble model to simulate the potential geographical distribution of C. roborovskyi during the LGM, Mid-Holocene, current and future climate scenarios (2030s), and used ArcGIS to calculate the suitable area and centroid migration trajectory to discuss the effects of climatic variation since the Last Glacial Maximum on the distribution of C. roborovskyi. The impact of climate change on the distribution of C. roborovskyi will provide a theoretical basis for the protection of C. roborovskyi under the background of climate change. The results showed that: (1) the effect of precipitation factor on the distribution of C. roborovskyi was higher than that of temperature factor and terrain factor; (2) In the current, the medium and high suitable regions of C. roborovskyi was 10.172×10⁵ km², and the centroids were located in Alxa Left Banner; (3) The centroid of LGM moved southeast to the centroid of Mid-Holocene, and then moved northeast to current centroid. C. roborovskyi could better adapt to the cold and dry environment of Last Glacial Maximum; (4) Under the future RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios, the area of medium and high suitable regions significantly increased, but under the condition of RCP8.5, the area was decreased by 1.981×10⁵ km² compared with the current situation. It is speculated that the mild climate warming was beneficial to the survival and distribution of C. roborovskyi.