To evaluate the potential distribution of Rosa roxburghii in China under the background of climate change, we simulated the potential geographical distribution of R. roxburghii under current and future climate scenarios based on natural distribution data of R. roxburghii, and the current (1960-1990) and future (2050s and 2070s) climate factor data using MaxEnt software, and to identify the main climatic factors affecting its geographical distribution. The results showed that: (1) temperature factor is a key climate factor affecting R. roxburghii distribution, especially the percent contribution and permutation importance of the min temperature of coldest (BIO06) to the model were 66.7% and 53.4%, respectively. (2) Under the present climate conditions, the total suitable area of R. roxburghii is 3.50×10⁶km², accounting for 36.44% of Chinas land area. Among them, the highly suitable area is 2.05×10⁵km², accounting for 5.87% of the total suitable area, and it is mainly distributed in western Guizhou, central Sichuan, and SichuanChongqingShaanxi border. (3) Under the future climate change scenario, the total and lowly suitable regions of R. roxburghii will increase, while the moderate and high suitable regions will decrease. Under the condition of RCP4.5 in 2070s, the moderately and highly suitable regions will be the minimum, which are 7.08 × 10⁵ km² and 2.80 × 10⁴ km², respectively, accounting for only 53.30% and 13.65% of the moderately and highly suitable regions in current region. It indicated that the suitable region of R. roxburghii increased slightly with the climate change and tended to move to high latitude area. The highly suitable area of central Sichuan, and SichuanChongqingShaanxi border are significantly reduced, and will be mainly distributed in Guizhou Province in the future.