Caryopteris mongholica is an afforestation and greening tree, which used at arid and semiarid regions of northern China, while its characteristics of distribution and suitable areas influence factors remain unclear. Our research based on the highresolution environmental data related to current and future climate and used the MaxEnt model to evaluate the importance factors in the formation of C. mongholica suitability area. Our study will provide a theoretical reference for the protection, application and management of C. mongholica. The results showed that: (1) under the current climatic conditions, the moderately and highly suitable areas of C. mongholica were 34.18 × 10⁴ km² and 15.91 × 10⁴ km², respectively. Meanwhile altitude, rainfall in the wettest month and mean temperature in the hottest season are considered to be the critical factors affecting the distribution of C. mongholica. (2) The suitable area C. mongholica will expand to high latitudes from 2021 to 2060, however shrink to low latitudes from 2 061 to 2 100. Overall, our research result believe climate warming will promote distribution expansion of C. mongholica. However, these suitable areas may not be available in fact because of urban development and human factors. We need to establish effective management strategies urgently.