Based on specimens and literature information, this study selected 19 environmental factors and 1 altitude factor, to simulate and predict the distribution pattern and potential suitable area changes of Medicago archiducisnicolai under the background of climate change. This research has reconstructed the geographical distribution of M. archiducisnicolai in five climate scenarios (the last interglacial, the last glacial maximum, the mid holocene century, current and future) by ArcGIS software and MaxEnt model. The prediction results showed that: (1) under the current climate, M. archiducisnicolai was mainly distributed in the intersection zone between the eastern edge of the QinghaiTibet Plateau and the Loess Plateau, including the eastern and southern parts of Qinghai, the central and southwestern parts of Gansu, the northwestern part of Sichuan, the southern part of Ningxia, the eastern part of Tibet and the western edge of Shaanxi. (2) High altitude, cold and dryness were the main environmental features of the M. archiducisnicolai appropriate areas. (3) It was relatively stable that the change in total area of the suitable areas in different climates, but the highly suitable areas were more sensitive to climate change. From the last interglacial period to the last glacial maximum, the highly suitable area moved eastward from the Hehuang valley in eastern Qinghai to the Taohe valley in central Gansu, and then moved westward to the Hehuang valley in the middle of the new century, but it did not move out of the Longzhong Basin. (4) Compared with the current climate, the suitable areas of the highly and moderately of M. archiducisnicolai were slightly increased in the 2070s, but the distribution pattern and potential suitable areas remained stable. The analysis showed that in the eastern margin of the QinghaiTibet Plateau, the basins and valleys created by the Kunlun Mountains, the Qilian Mountains and the Qinling Mountains provided a safe refuge in situ for M. archiducisnicolai, formed a unique and stable narrow distribution pattern, and the future climate change (2070s) would not pose a great threat to the plant.